To develop its daily activity, mankind uses several sources of energy, with more than 90% of our energy needs being provided by fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), while the remaining 10% are mainly satisfied by nuclear energy and hydroelectric power.
Sources of energy such as wind, the sun, the tides, the waves, geothermal and biomass still have a small expression in world’s energy consumption, though their use is continuously increasing. Our current lifestyle has been made possible thanks to fossil fuels.
The natural gas that heats our homes, the gasoline that makes our vehicles move and the coal that provides much of the electrical power that comes into our houses are, as we know, fossil fuels. Natural reserves of coal, oil and natural gas exist all around the world, but these reserves are not inexhaustible. In fact, the natural processes that allow the formation of fossil fuels take millions of years and we are spending them at a much higher rate than they form. Therefore we can consider fossil fuels as sources of non-renewable energy.
The oil crisis in the 70s has caused a 500% raise in the price over a short period of time. It was thought at the time (based on more political than scientific reasoning) that fossil fuels had nearly ended. That made people rush towards the use of renewable energies and made governments increase their research for methods to save fuel. As people realized that there was still much oil they returned to same consumption they had previously.
This way of thinking has reached our days and there are still some people saying that the in the past we have not spent half of the world's oil reserves. Though this is in a certain way true, it is much harder to extract oil from the bottom of the ocean than from earths solid surface and not all the existing oil can be extracted in an economically viable way.
In 1956, Marion King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell developed a mathematical expression able to predict the amount of oil that could be extracted from a well over time is that the quantity of oil that will be produced. It was the basis for construction of a graphs (Hubbert curves) that have been able to follow, with astonishing accuracy, the peaks of exploitation in all geographical areas.
Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.
The Hubbert curve for coal
The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak.
Looking at the curves quickly see that the maximum production will be reached within a couple of years. The model of King Hubbert also provides that the maximum coincides with the reduction by half of the reserves of oil initials.
Before 2010, the supply of oil will begin to decline, which means drastic increases in their price, if its demand does not decrease. The ending of the other fossil fuels will also be difficult to solve, with the natural gas expected last little more than oil and coal reserves estimated to last 200 to 300 years.
According to the most optimistic reserve estimates the years left for production of fossil fuels are:
• Oil: 1,277,702/77/365= 45 years
• Gas: 1,239,000/47/365= 72 years
• Coal: 4,786,000/52/365= 252 years
Bibliography
• Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956
• Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004
• Maugeri, L. (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115
• Global oil & gas depletion: an overview, R.W. Bentley, Energy Policy, 30, 189–205, 2002
• Wikipedia-Fossil fuels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel)
• BP Statistics(http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6848&contentId=7033471)
Sources of energy such as wind, the sun, the tides, the waves, geothermal and biomass still have a small expression in world’s energy consumption, though their use is continuously increasing. Our current lifestyle has been made possible thanks to fossil fuels.
The natural gas that heats our homes, the gasoline that makes our vehicles move and the coal that provides much of the electrical power that comes into our houses are, as we know, fossil fuels. Natural reserves of coal, oil and natural gas exist all around the world, but these reserves are not inexhaustible. In fact, the natural processes that allow the formation of fossil fuels take millions of years and we are spending them at a much higher rate than they form. Therefore we can consider fossil fuels as sources of non-renewable energy.
The world’s natural deposits of coal ("BP Statistics", 2004) (click the image too see a larger version)
The world’s natural deposits of crude ("BP Statistics", 2004) (click the image too see a larger version)
The world’s natural deposits of natural gas ("BP Statistics", 2004) (click the image too see a larger version)
The world’s natural deposits of crude ("BP Statistics", 2004) (click the image too see a larger version)
The world’s natural deposits of natural gas ("BP Statistics", 2004) (click the image too see a larger version)
The oil crisis in the 70s has caused a 500% raise in the price over a short period of time. It was thought at the time (based on more political than scientific reasoning) that fossil fuels had nearly ended. That made people rush towards the use of renewable energies and made governments increase their research for methods to save fuel. As people realized that there was still much oil they returned to same consumption they had previously.
This way of thinking has reached our days and there are still some people saying that the in the past we have not spent half of the world's oil reserves. Though this is in a certain way true, it is much harder to extract oil from the bottom of the ocean than from earths solid surface and not all the existing oil can be extracted in an economically viable way.
In 1956, Marion King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell developed a mathematical expression able to predict the amount of oil that could be extracted from a well over time is that the quantity of oil that will be produced. It was the basis for construction of a graphs (Hubbert curves) that have been able to follow, with astonishing accuracy, the peaks of exploitation in all geographical areas.
Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.
The Hubbert curve for coal
The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been. It also has a single peak.
Looking at the curves quickly see that the maximum production will be reached within a couple of years. The model of King Hubbert also provides that the maximum coincides with the reduction by half of the reserves of oil initials.
Before 2010, the supply of oil will begin to decline, which means drastic increases in their price, if its demand does not decrease. The ending of the other fossil fuels will also be difficult to solve, with the natural gas expected last little more than oil and coal reserves estimated to last 200 to 300 years.
According to the most optimistic reserve estimates the years left for production of fossil fuels are:
• Oil: 1,277,702/77/365= 45 years
• Gas: 1,239,000/47/365= 72 years
• Coal: 4,786,000/52/365= 252 years
Bibliography
• Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956
• Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004
• Maugeri, L. (2004). Oil: Never Cry Wolf--Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over. Science 304, 1114-1115
• Global oil & gas depletion: an overview, R.W. Bentley, Energy Policy, 30, 189–205, 2002
• Wikipedia-Fossil fuels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel)
• BP Statistics(http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6848&contentId=7033471)
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